Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 78829.043194 83248.177187 87669.712867 92422.464741 97383.567155 102406.221084 107872.398827
2026-01-04 72184.364889 78958.328039 85926.554619 93620.728934 101868.523334 110434.675022 119994.283275
2026-01-11 67171.330544 75554.750603 84369.461581 94308.870092 105184.515130 116702.728053 129803.464464
2026-01-18 62939.516985 72488.161789 82714.979769 94450.601238 107511.940440 121568.708885 137806.473070
2026-01-25 59525.762950 69997.034019 81394.722995 94674.856539 109673.809378 126039.407124 145195.421090
2026-02-01 56413.805041 67607.603316 79971.948077 94577.956648 111293.036732 129756.078849 151621.479888
2026-02-08 54184.640022 66064.182602 79361.514031 95265.308353 113681.216497 134246.024369 158854.063670
2026-02-15 51774.565383 64170.008663 78221.007870 95223.810981 115131.394387 137589.744126 164723.883895
2026-02-22 50383.832769 63383.120230 78287.823285 96514.484977 118067.608274 142604.417851 172504.599632
2026-03-01 48881.380692 62380.092388 78027.854114 97356.404379 120428.855012 146922.306086 179468.431547
2026-03-08 47009.343756 60846.674241 77061.111665 97288.119605 121656.376896 149873.104204 184808.587334
2026-03-15 45527.979872 59723.278942 76527.354880 97684.819473 123394.295361 153397.093672 190814.684886
2026-03-22 44709.718707 59397.381358 76952.148764 99247.893099 126559.690565 158665.093551 198976.252771
2026-03-29 43699.741009 58791.085212 77000.984098 100328.348580 129131.268285 163231.890420 206331.849473
2026-04-05 42563.442354 57979.195254 76756.050580 101013.485072 131197.958980 167183.665978 212959.065127
2026-04-12 41237.681437 56876.524130 76104.419842 101153.681134 132563.724335 170268.480019 218534.485425
2026-04-19 40034.399243 55887.606029 75556.655023 101388.652666 134020.094626 173449.430044 224228.512397
2026-04-26 38744.863156 54742.463262 74770.544653 101285.681103 135025.051970 176057.884435 229215.975699
2026-05-03 37893.632357 54141.764133 74654.287216 102012.451615 137058.804385 179935.081417 235783.307121
2026-05-10 36752.429204 53119.571994 73960.678900 101968.543838 138093.701694 182557.881764 240794.148826
2026-05-17 36266.054560 52954.095050 74365.834518 103333.302283 140921.541642 187432.222526 248642.594500
2026-05-24 35607.503368 52533.049219 74417.049561 104223.450024 143134.911573 191539.399822 255549.563256
2026-05-31 34588.673914 51590.652214 73752.315362 104151.256157 144088.561757 194045.794514 260441.821741